I recently had the pleasure of working with Red+White Marketing Agency, and I couldn't be more impressed with their services! From the outset, their team demonstrated exceptional professionalism and creativity. They took the time to understand my business needs and crafted a tailored marketing strategy that truly resonated with my target audience. The communication throughout the process was outstanding, they kept me informed at every stage and were always receptive to feedback. Their innovative approach to digital marketing helped elevate my brand's online presence significantly. I noticed an increase in engagement and leads almost immediately after implementing their strategies. What I appreciated most was their dedication to results. Red+White Marketing Agency not only delivered on their promises but exceeded my expectations. If you're looking for a marketing agency that combines passion, expertise, and a personal touch, I highly recommend Red+White. They are a powerhouse in the marketing world, and I look forward to continuing our partnership!
Do you need to rank #1 for AI Overviews? Real data.
Intro
Ask Google the question in this title and the AI Overview above the results answers it for you: no, you don’t need to rank number one. The answer engine is describing itself, and it’s telling the truth.
The data behind that answer moved fast. In mid-2025, roughly three quarters of the pages cited in AI Overviews also ranked in Google’s top 10 for the same query. By April 2026 that overlap had collapsed to around 38%. Most citations now come from pages that aren’t on page one at all.
For a South African business that’s spent years fighting for a top spot, that raises an awkward question. If the AI answer at the top of the page doesn’t need your ranking, what was the fight for? Here are the actual numbers, and where we’d put the effort now.
Key takeaways
- Only about 38% of pages cited in AI Overviews also rank in the top 10 for that query, down from roughly 76% in mid-2025 (Ahrefs, 863,000 search results analysed).
- Ranking still helps your odds: position #1 carries about a 33% chance of citation, position #10 about 13%.
- Between a quarter and a third of citations come from pages ranked 11th to 100th.
- The main reason is query fan-out. Google’s AI runs several related searches behind one question and picks sources from all of them.
- Being cited pays. A cited page earns around 35% more clicks than the same position without a citation.
- We’ve watched the pattern in our own Search Console and in a client account: pages well outside the top 10 accumulating steady impressions.
Do you need to rank #1 to be cited in AI Overviews?
No. A #1 ranking improves your odds of being cited, but it isn’t a requirement. In 2026, only about 38% of pages cited in AI Overviews also rank in Google’s top 10 for that query. The rest are cited from lower positions, sometimes far lower.
An AI Overview is the AI-written answer Google now shows above the normal results, with links to the pages it drew from (Google documents how these citations work). It appears on close to half of all searches. We’ve written before about what AI Overviews are doing to South African traffic; this piece is about the narrower question of who gets picked as a source. If you’re new to the topic, what AI search optimisation actually is is the place to start.
The short version: ranking and citation have become two different contests. They reward overlapping but distinct things, and the overlap is shrinking. Two large studies measured exactly how far apart they’ve drifted.
What does the citation data actually show?
The numbers line up across two separate data sets. Citation probability falls from about 33% at position #1 to about 13% at position #10, and the share of citations drawn from the top 10 has roughly halved in under a year.
The bigger of the two is Ahrefs’ March 2026 analysis of 863,000 search results and over 4 million cited URLs. In July 2025, about 76% of AI Overview citations ranked in the top 10. By April 2026 it was 37.9%. Pages ranked 11th to 100th supplied roughly a quarter to a third of all citations, and pages beyond the top 100 supplied a similar share. Search Engine Journal’s coverage called the drop what it is: sharp. Ahrefs does note that part of the decline may come from a change in how they parse AI Overviews, so treat the exact figures as directional rather than precise.
The second comes via The Digital Bloom’s 2026 citation report, which collates research putting exact odds on each position: 33.07% at #1, sliding to 13.04% at #10. Read those two numbers together and the picture is clear. The curve slopes the way you’d expect, but it never reaches zero, and it doesn’t cliff after page one.
One caution on reading this optimistically. A 13% chance at position #10 is a real chance, not a strategy, and ranking still moves your odds more than any other single factor. What the curve shows is that the citation decision rests on more than rank order. That extra part you can work on separately, at whatever position you currently hold.
Why do AI Overviews cite pages that don’t rank?
Mostly because the AI isn’t reading one results page. Google’s systems run several related searches behind a single question, a process called query fan-out, then select sources from across all of them. A page that ranks 15th for your query might rank 3rd for one of those hidden related searches.
That’s the mechanical reason. The selection reason is about the page itself. When researchers compare cited pages against uncited ones, what keeps surfacing is extractability and trust rather than raw authority. Self-contained answers under clear headings get lifted. Consistent business details across the web make the engine confident it’s citing the right entity. A 2026 correlation study even found that cited pages often carry fewer backlinks than the uncited pages they beat, because the AI is choosing the clearest verifiable answer, not the most-linked one.
Brand signals have grown teeth too. Recent citation research puts brand authority ahead of on-page structure as the strongest single predictor of being cited. Structure earns the extraction; being a recognisable, consistently described business earns the trust. We’ve covered the practical side of both in how to get cited in AI search.
Is ranking #1 still worth chasing?
Yes, with a qualifier. Position #1 still carries the best citation odds on the curve and still earns the most traditional clicks. What changed is that a top ranking no longer guarantees you a seat in the AI answer, and a modest ranking no longer rules you out.
There’s a version of this question doing the rounds in business forums right now: is ranking #1 still valuable if the AI answers the question above you? The measured answer is that the two work together. When your page is cited, it earns around 35% more clicks than the same position without a citation. The AI Overview compresses the results below it, but it amplifies the sources inside it.
So the budget question comes down to proportion, feeding both contests instead of picking one. The classic ranking work, technical health, content depth, links, still matters and still compounds. What deserves a bigger share than it’s getting at most businesses is the work that wins citations: answer-first pages, structured data, and business details that read identically everywhere. If you’re weighing whether any of this is still worth doing, we’ve made the longer argument in is SEO dead in 2026. It isn’t. It’s just scored differently now.
What does this look like in real Search Console data?
We went looking for the pattern in accounts we run, and it’s there.
One article on our own site spent weeks at position 17 to 19. Page two, on a good day. By the old logic that page should be invisible. Instead it pulled a steady and growing stream of impressions, as many as 22 in a single day, with almost none of the clicks a page-two ranking used to produce. One caveat: Search Console doesn’t label which impressions came from an AI surface, so we can’t prove where they appeared. But steady exposure at position 17 with near-zero clicks is the shape you’d expect when a page is being surfaced in a summarised answer rather than a list of links.
The same divergence shows up at client scale. For Moon Investments, the bullion dealer we run search for, we pulled the full visibility history and added it up: 20,082 impressions came from positions outside the top 10, against 16,861 from inside it. More total exposure below page one than on it. Click-through told the old story, 1.83% inside the top 10 versus 0.15% outside, roughly twelve times lower. Position still decides who gets the click. It no longer decides who gets seen.
Neither of these is proof of an AI Overview citation, and we won’t pretend otherwise. What they show is the underlying shift the citation studies describe: visibility has detached from position. If your Search Console shows impressions holding up while clicks sag, you’re likely looking at the same thing.
How red&white reads ranking and citation together
We treat them as two scoreboards on the same game, and we report both. Rankings and traffic tell you how the classic contest is going. A monthly prompt set, the questions a buyer would actually ask ChatGPT or Google, tells you whether the answer engines name you. One without the other is half the picture.
The work splits cleanly. Our SEO service carries the ranking fundamentals: technical health, content that covers what buyers search for, and the steady authority-building that feeds the top of the citation curve. Our AI search work carries the citation side: answer-first restructuring, schema, entity consistency, and tracking share-of-answers over time.
The South African angle matters here. The field of citation-ready local content is still thin. Most of your competitors haven’t restructured a single page, which means the odds of a well-built page being picked from position 8 or 12 are better here than they’d be in a saturated market. That window is real, and it favours whoever moves while it’s open.
One more thing worth checking once you’re getting cited: whether it’s actually reaching new customers, since a citation and a sale are two different events.
The bottom line
You don’t need to rank #1 to be cited in AI Overviews. On Ahrefs’ 2026 numbers, about 62% of cited pages don’t rank in the top 10 for that query. Ranking first still gives you the best odds, roughly one in three, but the citation is decided by extractability and trust, and those you can build at any position.
Don’t abandon rankings. Rebalance. Keep the fundamentals that earn positions, and add the answer-first structure, schema and consistency that earn citations, because the same clarity pays on both surfaces.
If you’d like to know where you stand, we’ll pull your Search Console data, run your buyer questions through the engines, and tell you straight which contest you’re losing and what it costs to fix. Talk to us and we’ll show you the numbers.
Questions.
Do you need to rank #1 to be cited in AI Overviews?
No. In 2026, only about 38% of pages cited in AI Overviews also rank in Google's top 10 for that query, down from roughly 76% a year earlier. A top ranking improves your odds of citation, but the majority of cited pages now come from outside page one.
Can a page outside the top 10 be cited in an AI Overview?
Yes. Ahrefs' 2026 study of 863,000 search results found that roughly a quarter to a third of AI Overview citations come from pages ranked between 11th and 100th, and a similar share from beyond the top 100.
Does ranking higher improve your chances of being cited?
Yes. Citation probability sits around 33% at position #1 and falls to about 13% at position #10. Ranking helps, it just stopped being a requirement, and it was never a guarantee.
Why does Google cite low-ranking pages in AI Overviews?
Mainly because of query fan-out. Google's AI runs several related searches behind a single question and selects sources from all of them, so a page ranked 15th for your query can be picked because it ranks well for one of the hidden related searches.
Is ranking #1 on Google still worth pursuing?
Yes, with a caveat. Position #1 still carries the best citation odds and still earns the most traditional clicks. But the work that earns citations, clear answers, consistent business details and structured data, deserves a share of the budget that used to chase position alone.
What our clients say.
5.0I have worked with a few agencies before, but none come close to the great service, communication and results we have had while using Red+White! They have managed our Google Ads account, running P-Max, Search and Dynamic Search ads - and helped us achieve a great return on investment by reaching targets for our e-commerce store! Thank you Darren and Jean for your clear communication and undying dedication to detail while handling our account!
Working with Red + White Agency has been a game-changer for our brand. Their strategic approach and creative insight have significantly boosted our brand awareness and elevated how we connect with our audience. From day one, they demonstrated a deep understanding of our goals and delivered solutions that not only resonated with our audience but also improved the overall user experience across our platforms. Their team is proactive, responsive, and incredibly easy to work with, always going the extra mile to ensure we're ahead of the curve. We've seen measurable improvements in engagement and customer satisfaction since partnering with them. If you're looking for a team that truly understands how to grow and refine your brand, Red + White Agency is the way to go. Highly recommended!
I had the pleasure of working with RED MARKETING, and I can confidently say they are an outstanding agency. Their efficiency and creativity are truly impressive, and they maintain a remarkably high standard of attention and insight for their clients. What sets them apart is their commitment to treating each client as a unique individual, ensuring that every strategy is tailored to specific needs. They pride themselves on being at the top of their game, and it shows in their results. If you're looking to elevate your brand, I highly recommend RED MARKETING!
Wow guys! Thank you to Jean and his team for making it super easy and effective to get my website and website traffic to where it is now. With so much knowledge in the space, our SEO and Google tracking has proven itself monthly!! Can't recommend this enough for ALL business 👏 Many thanks from IVgo Cape Town!
I Wanted to take a moment to share my thoughts on working with Darren, Jean, and their incredible team. From the get-go, these guys have been nothing short of amazing. It’s not just their skills with Google Ads that’s impressive – it’s their attitude and approach that really stand out. Working with Darren and Jean feels like teaming up with friends who genuinely care about your success. They're super easy to work with, always warm, and bring a positive vibe that makes even the toughest of tasks seem doable. They're not just in it for the paycheck – it’s clear they're here to help us succeed, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. It’s been a great journey with them, and I can’t recommend these guys enough. If you're looking for a team that's skilled, dedicated, and truly values your success, look no further. Cheers to Darren, Jean, and the team for being awesome at what they do!
As a team of creatives, having RED & WHITE to pass our clients on to has been a massive help for our team. They offer the necessary advertising services that our team do not have the capabilities , or specialist understanding to offer. Transparent and trustworthy are the best way I could describe what to expect if you decide to work with their team. It also goes without saying they know what they are doing in the advertising space but you can ask them anything you like to bring your own peace of mind, as I mentioned earlier, they are very transparent with their capabilities and what you can expect from them.
We couldn't be happier with the results our SEO agency Red + White have delivered! Their expertise, dedication, and strategic approach have significantly improved our website's rankings and online visibility. Thanks to their efforts, we've seen a noticeable increase in traffic and conversions. Highly recommend their services!
We are incredibly grateful to Jean and the team for elevating Royal Paving's, landscaping services. Thanks to their support, we've experienced significant growth in our business. Highly recommend their expertise!
We moved over to red and white and experienced immediate increases in leads. They are a pleasure to deal with.
Amazing service from red+white Digitally Creative, great communication from Jean and team, we appreciate you working late and making sure we are always on top of the game, great customer service. I would advise anyone to use their services without any hesitation. Their prices are very competitive.
Working with, red+white Agency has been the best ever move for my business. We are always at the top of any Google search, and they are amazing at problem-solving: their service is top-notch! Thanks, Jean and team!
Knowledgeable and efficient 👌 We trust Red + White with all our collaborations!
Strategic, attention to detail, hands on expertise. Great service! Highly recommend Red+White.
Fantastic service! Highly recommend red+white Agency for any digital marketing needs!
Excellent service!! Great creativity and brilliant communication. Thanks Jean & team!!
Awesome service
I recently had the pleasure of working with Red+White Marketing Agency, and I couldn't be more impressed with their services! From the outset, their team demonstrated exceptional professionalism and creativity. They took the time to understand my business needs and crafted a tailored marketing strategy that truly resonated with my target audience. The communication throughout the process was outstanding, they kept me informed at every stage and were always receptive to feedback. Their innovative approach to digital marketing helped elevate my brand's online presence significantly. I noticed an increase in engagement and leads almost immediately after implementing their strategies. What I appreciated most was their dedication to results. Red+White Marketing Agency not only delivered on their promises but exceeded my expectations. If you're looking for a marketing agency that combines passion, expertise, and a personal touch, I highly recommend Red+White. They are a powerhouse in the marketing world, and I look forward to continuing our partnership!
I have worked with a few agencies before, but none come close to the great service, communication and results we have had while using Red+White! They have managed our Google Ads account, running P-Max, Search and Dynamic Search ads - and helped us achieve a great return on investment by reaching targets for our e-commerce store! Thank you Darren and Jean for your clear communication and undying dedication to detail while handling our account!
Working with Red + White Agency has been a game-changer for our brand. Their strategic approach and creative insight have significantly boosted our brand awareness and elevated how we connect with our audience. From day one, they demonstrated a deep understanding of our goals and delivered solutions that not only resonated with our audience but also improved the overall user experience across our platforms. Their team is proactive, responsive, and incredibly easy to work with, always going the extra mile to ensure we're ahead of the curve. We've seen measurable improvements in engagement and customer satisfaction since partnering with them. If you're looking for a team that truly understands how to grow and refine your brand, Red + White Agency is the way to go. Highly recommended!
I had the pleasure of working with RED MARKETING, and I can confidently say they are an outstanding agency. Their efficiency and creativity are truly impressive, and they maintain a remarkably high standard of attention and insight for their clients. What sets them apart is their commitment to treating each client as a unique individual, ensuring that every strategy is tailored to specific needs. They pride themselves on being at the top of their game, and it shows in their results. If you're looking to elevate your brand, I highly recommend RED MARKETING!
Wow guys! Thank you to Jean and his team for making it super easy and effective to get my website and website traffic to where it is now. With so much knowledge in the space, our SEO and Google tracking has proven itself monthly!! Can't recommend this enough for ALL business 👏 Many thanks from IVgo Cape Town!
I Wanted to take a moment to share my thoughts on working with Darren, Jean, and their incredible team. From the get-go, these guys have been nothing short of amazing. It’s not just their skills with Google Ads that’s impressive – it’s their attitude and approach that really stand out. Working with Darren and Jean feels like teaming up with friends who genuinely care about your success. They're super easy to work with, always warm, and bring a positive vibe that makes even the toughest of tasks seem doable. They're not just in it for the paycheck – it’s clear they're here to help us succeed, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. It’s been a great journey with them, and I can’t recommend these guys enough. If you're looking for a team that's skilled, dedicated, and truly values your success, look no further. Cheers to Darren, Jean, and the team for being awesome at what they do!
As a team of creatives, having RED & WHITE to pass our clients on to has been a massive help for our team. They offer the necessary advertising services that our team do not have the capabilities , or specialist understanding to offer. Transparent and trustworthy are the best way I could describe what to expect if you decide to work with their team. It also goes without saying they know what they are doing in the advertising space but you can ask them anything you like to bring your own peace of mind, as I mentioned earlier, they are very transparent with their capabilities and what you can expect from them.
We couldn't be happier with the results our SEO agency Red + White have delivered! Their expertise, dedication, and strategic approach have significantly improved our website's rankings and online visibility. Thanks to their efforts, we've seen a noticeable increase in traffic and conversions. Highly recommend their services!
We are incredibly grateful to Jean and the team for elevating Royal Paving's, landscaping services. Thanks to their support, we've experienced significant growth in our business. Highly recommend their expertise!
We moved over to red and white and experienced immediate increases in leads. They are a pleasure to deal with.
Amazing service from red+white Digitally Creative, great communication from Jean and team, we appreciate you working late and making sure we are always on top of the game, great customer service. I would advise anyone to use their services without any hesitation. Their prices are very competitive.
Working with, red+white Agency has been the best ever move for my business. We are always at the top of any Google search, and they are amazing at problem-solving: their service is top-notch! Thanks, Jean and team!
Knowledgeable and efficient 👌 We trust Red + White with all our collaborations!
Strategic, attention to detail, hands on expertise. Great service! Highly recommend Red+White.
Fantastic service! Highly recommend red+white Agency for any digital marketing needs!
Excellent service!! Great creativity and brilliant communication. Thanks Jean & team!!
Awesome service
See also.
SEO How to measure SEO ROI: 5 real checks for 2026
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Google Ads Google Ads shows conversions but no sales? 5 checks
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